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This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syrian anti-government rebels say they shot down a fighter jet
• Analysis: Finding a Global Solution to the Syrian Crisis
• Planned Saudi industrial city excludes mixed gender workers
• Greece continues downward spiral as economy contracts 6.2%
• Banks, companies and investors prepare for collapse of the euro

Syrian anti-government rebels say they shot down a fighter jet

Syrian rebels with captured pilot — still image from video (al-Jazeera)

A rebel group fighting against the regime of Syria’s president Bashar
al-Assad says that they shot down a government plane and captured one
of the pilots. They’ve posted YouTube video showing the jet crashing
and another of the pilot giving a statement. The Syrian regime
confirms the plane crash, but said that the crash was caused by
technical problems during a regular training mission. If the rebel
claim turns out to be true, then it will be one more major
psychological victory following a string of high profile defections
from the al-Assad regime. Al-Jazeera

Analysis: Finding a Global Solution to the Syrian Crisis

The following is from Javier Solana, a Nato expert writing
in the Moscow Times:

“The feeling is growing stronger by the day that
Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime is approaching a tipping
point. Kofi Annan, the United Nations and Arab League special
envoy, has abandoned his efforts to implement an internationally
agreed six-point plan to end the violence. Now the international
community must think seriously about how to minimize the dangers
inherent in Syria’s domestic turmoil. …

In particular, there is a growing danger of Sunni retaliation
against the Alawite minority, which comprises only 12 percent of
the population but controls the government, the economy and the
army. The Alawites, who overcame second-class citizenship only
when Assad’s Baath party came to power in 1963, now believe that
their very survival is linked to that of the regime.

If the Syrian opposition does not take the Alawites’ concerns
seriously, the country could be wracked by years of civil war,
worse than the conflict that devastated Lebanon from 1975 to
1990.”

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the last paragraph is
completely wrong. Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and so
this kind of civil war is literally impossible at this time. As I’ve
written many, many times, the current conflict in Syria will not get
worse but will fizzle. The precise scenario cannot be predicted, but
right now it appears to be trending towards a situation where al-Assad
steps down, and the remaining factors form some kind of unity
government.

What’s interesting about Solana’s comments is his claim that the
survival of the Alawites at the hands of the Sunnis is in question.
“Survival” is too strong a word, but with 2/3 of the population, the
Sunnis are going to be dominating a post-Assad government, and there
will be bitter, lingering memories of the massive slaughter of Sunnis
by Alawites in 1982, as well as the war crimes by al-Assad’s regime
against Sunnis in the current conflict.

What’s really interesting is the comparison to the country next door,
Iraq. Iraq is also in a generational Awakening era, and when its
civil war fizzled in 2007, it formed a unity government, but this time
the Sunnis are in the minority, and the Shia are in the majority.
With the Alawites linked to the Shias against the Sunnis, it could be
said that Syria is going through Iraq’s civil war with the roles
reversed. An argument could even be made that Bashar al-Assad is now
playing the role of Saddam Hussein. Moscow Times

Planned Saudi industrial city excludes mixed gender workers

A lot of people like to work without being bothered by having people
of the opposite sex around the workplace, and that’s the case in Saudi
Arabia, where a new single-sex industrial city is being planned for
female workers. The city will not be entirely closed to males, as
there will be areas where males will be permitted. LA Times

Greece continues downward spiral as economy contracts 6.2%

Athens graffiti: GREECE NEXT ECONOMIC MODEL (Kathimerini)

Greece’s downward spiral continues to accelerate, with the second
quarter of 2012 being the worst in years . The economy has contracted
14 of the last 15 quarters, with the last quarter’s contraction at
6.2%. In May, the European Commission forecast that Greece’s economy
would shrink only 4.7% in 2012, but now that forecast has to be
revised to a much higher contraction. As we’ve been saying for years,
no solution exists to Greece’s debt problem other than a major world
financial crisis, despite the recitations of politicians. Kathimerini

Banks, companies and investors prepare for collapse of the euro

The 1930s Great Depression was worsened by high protective tariffs
imposed by countries around the world. Tariffs are now considered
unfashionable, but in today’s financial crisis, another form of
protection is being practiced in Europe. There’s a growing sense of
resentment in both lending and borrowing countries — the lending
companies resenting having to bail out profligate neighbors, and the
borrowing countries having to suffer the demands of people lending
them money. A sharp measure of the increasing nationalistic
protectionism in Europe is that banks and companies are refusing to
allow their money to flow across national borders, for fear that the
euro will collapse. More and more banks and companies are refusing to
take any credit risks at all in Europe. The European Central Bank
(ECB) is trying to fill the gap by providing liquidity, but that’s
only fueling fear that the euro is approaching collapse. There are
two countries that have benefited from these fears: Germany and the
United States. Excess liquidity is flowing into both these countries,
despite low or even negative bond yields (interest rates), because
financial execs are opting for safety over yield. Spiegel

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